It is expected that supply sources will shift to meet future increase in lumber demand. Factors influencing these shifts include changes in availability of timber supply, prices of sawlogs, competitiveness of lumber producers, exchange rates and developments in alternative markets for lumber producers in Canada and overseas. The study closely examines how reductions in harvest levels in British Columbia will impact lumber exports from the province and opportunities for lumber producers in Eastern Canada to increase shipments. It also looks at which overseas countries are forecasted to be supplying the U.S. in the coming 15 years.
Overseas shipments have been, on average, 4.8 per cent of total imports over the past decade. This share is likely to increase in the coming decades to reach a projected 6.5 per cent by 2030 in the base demand scenario and possibly as high as 35 per cent of total imports in the high demand scenario.
The main contents of the comprehensive 218-page study include:
- Demand forecastsof softwood lumber in the US from 2017 to 2030, including a detailed analysis of the outlook for lumber consumption in all lumber end-use categories in the U.S. market.
- Projected domestic and international sourcesthat will meet U.S. softwood lumber demand from 2017 to 2030. This section includes detailed regional and country profiles analyzing future lumber production levels and export potential based on log availability, sawlog prices and competitiveness of regional sawmills.
- Supply Curve Analysis. Alternative scenarios of lumber supply and demand are presented on a delivered cost basis to identify the most likely supplying regions to the U.S. by 2025 and 2030.
- Conclusions and Sensitivities. Various demand scenarios and sensitivities around exchange rates are included, as well as an alternative supply scenario where lumber supply in the U.S. South is lower and Canada is forecasted to be higher than in the base scenario.
More information about the study, including the table of contents, and subscription costs can be found at our website, https://woodprices.com/information/studies/.